Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Is the Commission on Presidential Elections Non-Partisan

Photo: Gage Skidmore
The way it works is this, candidates must "have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations’ most recently publicly-reported results" CPD

Let us set aside the question of whether or not the CPD is "non-partisan" and ask this question...

Are the polls selected for inclusion non-partisan?

The polls for this year are:

ABC-Washington Post
CBS-New York Times
CNN-Opinion Research Corporation
Fox News
NBC-Wall Street Journal

And the "CPD has retained Dr. Frank Newport, Editor-in-Chief of Gallup, to assist it in selecting the five national public opinion polls to be used in applying the criteria."

Is Frank Newport "non-partisan"?

Of the five polls selected Jill Stein only appears in three of them, Gary Johnson only in four.

Let's say Jill Stein polls 16% in her three polls.  

16+16+16+0+0/5 = 9.6%

In order to meet the 15% criteria for inclusion Jill Stein would have to score 25 percent on each of her polls, or better. Gary Johnson will have to score better than 18.75 on his four polls to be included.

While the CPD may be "non-partisan" the polls themselves are not "non-partisan" unless they include all the candidates running.

No comments: