Thursday, April 7, 2011

Republicans Lose in a Government Shutdown

It’s an old joke, but those who want a government shutdown should ponder its deeper meaning...

Two bulls stand upon a small hill, gazing down at a herd of heifers.  The young one shouts excitedly to the older one, “Let run down there and get us a cow!”  “No,” says the wise elder, “let’s walk down and get them all.”

Ryan's 2012 Budget is the Prize
Conservatives with torches in hand and blood in their eyes need to stay focused on the long game, which is Paul Ryan’s budget proposal for 2012 and beyond.  Running the government off of continuing resolutions for the rest of the year provides a predictable outcome favorable to Republicans; shutting down the government would be a wild crapshoot with an unpredictable outcome.
 
Conservative commentator Fred Barnes explains the advantages of running out the year with a string of CRs…

In the meantime, the incremental strategy is working. Republicans have passed two short-term measures to keep the government in operation since early March while slashing $10 billion in spending. At this rate, they would achieve the target of GOP congressional leaders of lopping off $61 billion from President Obama's proposed budget in the final seven months of the 2011 fiscal year.
The GOP, surprisingly, has done a good job so far framing this issue and controlling the debate. 
Even reliable liberal outlets like CNN, the NY Times and Washington Post are essentially saying, “OK Dems, you hate Paul Ryan’s Plan, and we are certainly not defending it, but what’s YOUR plan?  Where’s the president?”  The GOP had now moved the debate from If we should cut to How Much

The GOP is offering comprehensive solutions, but it’s also about tone and tenor
Republicans are proposing cuts of historic proportions, and a shutdown would provide an opportunity for liberals to level a charge of reckless irresponsibility on top of the current charges of cruelty, child-starving and geriatricide.  

I just don’t know if the GOP can overcome the blame game.  Liberals are really good at squawking and screaming, and the noiser the contretemps becomes, the better for them.  It distracts from the fact that we are in this mess because overwhelming democrat majorities failed to govern and pass a budget in the last congress.  It also distracts from the fact that the GOP only controls one half of one branch of government.  The blame clearly falls upon Democrat irresponsibility, but all of these facts would get drowned out in a noisy New York Times, MSNBC-fueled rage-fest.  

Reasoned debate will advance the conservative agenda, which is why Democrats want to avoid that at all costs.   

If the Dems are fer it, I’m agin’ it!
This is a PR fight the GOP does not need right now, especially since they are controlling the agenda.  This is a sideshow; Paul Ryan’s 2012 budget is the main event, he’s got the spotlight, and we don’t want him to lose it.  Serious Democrats like Alice Rivlin and Erskine Bowles may quibble with some of his details, but he essentially has their backing.  

A government shutdown would shift the debate back to the Democrat’s home turf of raw emotion and unhinged outrage.  This is the reason the Democrats are drooling over the prospect of a shutdown, and that is why I am against it.