Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Strong Horse, Dead Horse, Wagging Dogs, Sharpened Razors


As usual, Mark Steyn nails it...
The belated dispatch of Osama testifies to what the United States does well – elite warriors, superbly trained, equipped to a level of technological sophistication no other nation can match.

Everything else surrounding the event (including White House news management so club-footed that one starts to wonder darkly whether its incompetence is somehow intentional) embodies what the United States does badly. (Mark Steyn – OC Register)
Two questions trouble thinking Americans:

1. Why did we get Osama Bin Laden when we did?
2. Is President Obama purposely screwing things up?

We Got Him!
There are many corollaries to the first question: Was Osama already dead, and we just held that knowledge in our back pocket to wait for the opportune time? Did the raid even really happen, or was it faked?  Is Osama still alive?

Al Qaeda answered the last question in the negative, essentially confirming the official story.
“Occam’s Razor is a principle that generally recommends selecting the competing hypothesis that makes the fewest new assumptions, when the hypotheses are equal in other respects” (Wikipedia)

Occam's Razor says the most plausible answer is the official story. Intelligence has been working this for years, and the time became ripe a month or so ago. That doesn't disprove other theories, it's just that this is the most plausible one.

What do you get when you take a community organizer from Chicago...

The second question can also be explained by Occam’s razor. Barack Obama had nothing in his past experience, training, or education that even remotely qualified him to be president, so his poor performance is no surprise.

He compounded our nation’s ills by surrounding himself with pointy-headed intellectuals who share his embarrassing poverty of real-world experience. National Security Advisor Thomas Donilon may be a fine man, but his foreign policy experience consists of being a lawyer on the periphery of US diplomacy. The administration is full of people like him.  No wonder President Obama is screwing everything up.

Hanlon’s Razor also comes to mind…
“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” (Wikipedia)
This paragraph of the Wikipedia article is also instructive…
A practical observation on the risks of stupidity was made by the German General Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord in Truppenführung, 1933:
"I divide my officers into four classes; the clever, the lazy, the industrious, and the stupid. Each officer possesses at least two of these qualities.
Those who are clever and industrious are fitted for the highest staff appointments. Use can be made of those who are stupid and lazy. The man who is clever and lazy however is for the very highest command; he has the temperament and nerves to deal with all situations. But whoever is stupid and industrious is a menace and must be removed immediately!"
I’ll leave it to you to decide if the paragraph fits, and if so, which part.

20 comments:

Rob said...

Oh hells yeah, I question the timing!

And I'm still struggling with the Pakistan angle too - are they incredibly incompetent and stupid friends of the U.S. or complaisant and duplicitous friends of Al Qaeda?

Stealthily sending troops into another country unannounced - isn't that called an "invasion?" We do that to our friends?

Fishier and fishier.

Mark my words on this prediction: If Obama brings troops home for Christmas, his re-election bid is all but a lock. He needs something to sustain this Bin Laden momentum and that'd do the trick.

Always On Watch said...

...[Obama surrounded himself] with pointy-headed intellectuals who share his embarrassing poverty of real-world experience.

True.

I don't believe, however, that we have divergent stories of the death of OBL -- stories released by the White House and not the various conspiracy theories making the rounds in the blogosphere -- because of this administration's incompetence. In fact, I posted a little something about those divergent stories this morning.

A lot of what the Obama administration is doing might well be explained by Hanlon's Razor. But a lot is also explained by trying to burnish his image, IMO.

Always On Watch said...

Rob,
I do expect Obama to bring home the troops in time for Christmas.

In fact, I think that Obama had planned to do so even before the death of OBL. With OBL dead and gone, Obama has a publicly-acceptable reason to bring our boys home.

It is a while from December 2011 until November 2012. Enough time for BHO to make mistakes that will result in his not being elected? I don't know!

Silverfiddle said...

Of course Pakistan is duplicitous and untrustworthy. They have their own agenda and problems, as all nations do. They are definitely not "friends."

Other than that, I think it's all pretty straightforward. We got him when we did. Then the mallet heads in the Obama administration, all wound up from the tense danger of eating pizza in the situation room, completely blew the narrative.

I do firmly believe he will use this to get out.

Finntann said...

When you earnestly believe you can compensate for a lack of skill by doubling your efforts, there's no end to what you can't do.

Jack Camwell said...

I think it might be pointless to speculate as to why we tagged OBL now. We'll never know all the particulars. As I have said many times before, intelligence gathering is a finicky thing. Sometimes your WAGs work, sometimes they make you look stupid.

And what's with the "pointy head intellectuals," remark? There's nothing wrong with surrounding yourself with smart people. You can fault them for their political leanings, but don't fault them for being intellectuals.

Christopher - Conservative Perspective said...

@Jack,

I can't speak for Silver but I believe he should have used the term "pseudo-intellectual" as that would be the proper term in this case.

Jersey McJones said...

Silver, son;t you have anything substantive to complain about Obama these days, or are you just going to whine and nage like an old fat wife at her exhausted husband?

JMJ

Silverfiddle said...

We're in the realm of logic here, Jersey, so I can understand your incoherent discomfort.

Jack: I am not anti-intellectual by any stretch. Intellectuals can be great theoreticians, but they make poor advisors and decision-makers. "A lack of real-world experience" is the operative phrase here.

Christopher - Conservative Perspective said...

Silver, Not really disagreeing but IMHO "A lack of real-world experience" is exactly the description of a pseudo intellectual.

I guess we went to separate schools together,,,lol.

conservativesonfire said...

For Obama, I have to go with stupid and lazy. However, his Department Heads and Czars are of the stupid and industrious variety. A dangerous combination.

Mustang said...

The second question can also be explained by Occam’s razor. Barack Obama had nothing in his past experience, training, or education that even remotely qualified him to be president, so his poor performance is no surprise.

This works out for the president, as well … for when he does something ranking higher than mediocre, the free press hails him as a true genius in (fill in the blank). This works to the advantage of the Democratic Party and the Committee to Reelect a Communist because they know better than most that the average American can only remember well what he or she last heard —including edited sound bites.

Charles Krauthammer observed yesterday, “Obama and Trotsky share at least one common denominator: Trotsky was hailed as such a visionary that none of his predictions have ever come true.”

If anyone has the time, could you please explain to Jersey what I just wrote?

Jack Camwell said...

Jersey,
Question: Are you a troll?

Bastiatarian said...

Jersey,

I apologize for mocking you and making fun of you for all these months. Regardless of what I think of you and the comments you make, it was not appropriate, and it won't happen again. I did it in public, so I'm apologizing in public (and I apologize to everyone else for taking the space here to do so).

Sincerely,

Bastiatarian

WomanHonorThyself said...

the conflated political exposure was nauseating eh!

Silverfiddle said...

Bastiatarian:

You have nothing to apologize for. Your comments may have been acerbic, but they were spot on.

I see you gave up blogging???

Silverfiddle said...

Jack:
Jersey is a legit lefty. I actually found him at his blog over in Left Blogistan, made some comments and he tracked me back here.

Jersey McJones said...

Okay, I don't care what kind of intramural argument is lost on me.

Bastiat, you've never offended me.

Of course I'm a friggin lefty!!! Sean Hannity's boards remember me! I go back years now!

Jeez man, you could look me up any time you want. It's always obviously me!

JMJ

Trestin said...

I love the end. I know lots of conspiracy folks that have never served in the military. As someone who has been on the inside, I can insure people we are not competent enough at the top to pull off half of what people think we do.

Silverfiddle said...

Well said, Trestin. Higher level incompetence is the father of tactical brilliance