I do so based upon the opinion of Alan Dershowitz as well as a discussion with a lawyer friend.
When the Florida Attorney General said politics had nothing to do with the decision to press charges, she was lying. Political cowardice had everything to do with it. The actions of the Sanford Police Department did call the case into question, but informed and educated critics say the affidavit is a joke, and an investigator admitted on the stand that there was no evidence to contradict Zimmerman's statement that Martin jumped him after he had turned around and headed back to his vehicle.
Prosecutor Angela Corey purposely charged him with second degree murder so they could have a show trial where Zimmerman will be found not guilty by a jury of his peers, as opposed to the DA having to announce they cannot press charges due to a lack of evidence. This takes the heat off of the Florida political establishment while also ultimately serving justice, in a twisted way.
The prosecutors have no hard evidence, and Zimmerman is the only witness left standing. The second degree murder standard is too high. The official medical evidence will come out showing he did suffer injuries, and the rest is based upon what he told police and his testimony on the stand. He'll walk.
Once exonerated, Zimmerman will be sued for wrongful death, dragging this racial carnival of the grotesque out for years.
This doesn't mean he acted prudently. He did not. This is also not the fault of the stand your ground law, and the race shouters will continue shouting, even thought there is no evidence Zimmerman is a racist or that his actions that night were racially-motivated, let alone a "hate crime."
A Tragic Chain of Events
As in most accidents and tragedies, it took a string of bad decisions to produce the sad outcome.
1) Zimmerman got out of his vehicle.
2) Had he not been carrying a gun, would he have pursued a "suspicious" stranger in the dark? Forgoing either one of those actions would have prevented Martin's death.
3) Zimmerman's statement, and the testimony he is prepared to present, says that he was returning to his vehicle when Martin attacked him. Had Martin simply made haste back to his father's house, he would still be alive.
They can't convict George Zimmerman with no evidence, so I predict not guilty or a hung jury. That doesn't mean racism doesn't exist, it doesn't mean young black men are not racially profiled, and it doesn't mean police department don't treat white adults differently than they do black adolescents.
Race hustlers, social provocateurs and even reasoned thinkers are trying to hang the sins of the world upon George Zimmerman. Injustice cannot give birth to justice.
Mediaite - Alan Dershowitz
