Thursday, February 9, 2012

An Ebbing Tide Lifts Obama’s Boat

Giving up is the key to Obama’s reelection. Giving up on looking for a job, that is...

4 million Americans are so disgusted with Obamanomics that they have permanently abandoned the nation’s tattered workforce since the president took office, helping to keep the unemployment rate out of scary double-digit territory where it more properly belongs.

The simple calculation for unemployment before all the seasonal adjustments and so forth, is:

Unemployment Rate = Number of Unemployed / Total Labor Force

So the easy way to get unemployment down is to reduce the numerator in proportion to the denominator, and the easiest way to do that is to declare that the greatest number of unemployed workers are no longer looking for work, and therefore no longer “unemployed.” This shrinks the numerator relative to the denominator, making unemployment go down.

Obama is on track to be the only president to lose jobs during his term

This impressive feat beats even Herbert Hoover. He produced this horrible historic milestone by stopping drilling, shutting down pipelines and plane factories, and liberally slinging shovel-ready bureaucratic manure all over the place.  His economic record is abysmal.

There’s a right way and a wrong way to talk about just how catastrophic Obama’s job destruction record is. Here’s the wrong way:

Looking at the U-6 unemployment rate, which includes the discouraged and part-time workers, really doesn't tell us anything, because the ratio stays pretty much the same in good times and bad, so it’s a comparative wash to point out that “real” unemployment is closer to 16%. 

The same goes for trying to point to statistical tricks like seasonal adjustments, which explain how the economy could shed 1.5 million jobs between December and January yet still claim that unemployment fell from 8.5 to 8.3 and added 234,000 jobs. All administrations have played by these rules, so it’s not really a good point of criticism.

Here’s why Obama is a horrible president...

The absolute number of total jobs in the US has shrunk since President Obama was inaugurated; a catastrophe considering our population continues to grow. The shrinking participation (taking frustrated job-seekers out of the equation) is the key to masking Obama’s jobs destruction. Just this past month Obama's regime sliced off 88,000 job-seekers, sending them to statistical oblivion and improving his bottom line.
If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7 percent then vs. 63.7 percent today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 11.0 percent.
As an analysis from Hamilton Place Strategies concludes, “Most of the shift of the past year is due not to the improvement in the labor market, but the continued drop in participation in the labor force.” (8.3 Unemployment Rate is a Phony Number)
Here’s the bad news for Obama:
If the participation rate does level off at its current rate, according to HPS, the economy would need to generate 231,000 jobs per month to get below 8 percent unemployment by Election Day (8.3 Unemployment Rate is a Phony Number)
Now for the good news for the hopium smokers:
If the participation rate continues its downward slide, however, that number would be much lower—perhaps as low as 131,000 jobs a month (8.3 Unemployment Rate is a Phony Number)
So as long as the overall number of jobs continue to shrink and the government continues to kick more and more workers out of the statistical labor force, the jobs picture will continue to look up for Obama, even as the economy sags and the number of Americans out of work increases.

And they say the GOP field is unelectable?

See also:  O-Man the Destroyer


Sidbirt said...

very well said, thank you.

Anonymous said...

4 million Americans are so disgusted with Obamanomics that they have permanently abandoned the nation’s tattered workforce since the president took office, helping to keep the unemployment rate out of scary double-digit territory where it more properly belongs.

[The] “real” unemployment is closer to 16%.

An extremely important point, which the enemedia almost totally ignores, of course, because i won't help their precious Pagan Idol in the White House -- not that the Republican Establishment is doing anything that does NOT help Obummer. Now why IS that, do you suppose?

I read not long ago that somewhere between 13 and 14% unemployment has been standard in France for a long time, and is considered quite acceptable in that Old World Socialist Paradise. I don't know for sure, but similar figures may apply to other statist European economies as well. Perhaps Fintann, who seems to have an almost miraculous command of statistics, could either confirm or deny this data?

I wouldn't want to be guilty of spreading "misinformation," of course. The literalists among us would crucify me.

~ FreeThinke

Fredd said...

Sadly, most voters are dumber than a bag of hammers, and actually believe the fudged figures that the regime puts out there to prove what an awesome job Obama is doing.

And even sadder is the unarguable fact that the GOP is either unable or unwilling to educate voters as to the facts.

jez said...

FreeThinke: at ease... economic data is less important than medical data. I'm surprised you're so surprised at the idea that you should take some trouble to be accurate about the most important risk factors.

Ducky's here said...

No, they say that the nation is paying its dues.

Austerity will make the situation that much worse.

As long as you see this as a D vs. R issue rather than a structural problem you're screwed.

Ducky's here said...

I wouldn't want to be guilty of spreading "misinformation," of course. The literalists among us would crucify me.


Sorry Freethinker, but us leftists have been aware of the U6 for ages.

This fact of the official unemployment number's weakness is something that the fringe right is patting itself on the shoulder for uncovering. Obama is fudging the number says, Fredd. Absolute ignorance or stupidity?

Bunkerville said...

It is estimated that 17 percent of all Hospitals will go bankrupt with Obamacare. Add those tens of thousands to the unemployed in the near future.Just saying.

Anonymous said...

" ... economic data is less important than medical data ..."

Spoken like a true believer in Kollectivism who vainly imagines that great things can be accomplished without developing, maintaining and revering strong engines of wealth creation which can only thrive in a capitalist system.

All you humorless, bloodless types know how to do is snipe, snivel, spar and sob while you sift through statistics in search of support for your stifling surmises.


~ FreeThinke

Ducky's here said...

Estimated by whom? That information would really flesh out your post, Bunkerville.

Why would a change in insurance availability bankrupt a significant percentage of hospitals?

Jersey McJones said...

Because they say so, Ducky. Just as they say Obama policies create the unemployment situation. Remember, Human History only just started three years ago.


Ducky's here said...

At least American economic history did.

I really get a kick out of these guys thinking they got to the bottom of Obama's dastardly manipulation of the official unemployment figure. The methodology hasn't changed for decades.

Ducky's here said...

Off topic but very good

Since you and Fredd the Censoring Coward are waxing eloquent about Charles Murray's latest thought you might enjoy this take down.

Fredd's still pissed about welfare Cadillacs but I thought it might moderate your reaction.

Silverfiddle said...

@Ducky: Austerity will make the situation that much worse.

I see you've drunk the Krugman Kool-aid.

I am not alleging manipulation. I say up front that all administrations have followed the same rules.

I am pointing out that the absolute number of jobs has shrunk under Obama. It's unprecedented, even measuring against Hoover.

Let's see you spin that one, Obama fan boys...

Ducky's here said...

Better if you could point to actual policies responsible for the job losses.

Policies that ORIGINATED in this administration.

Silverfiddle said...

C'mon Duckster, You've read my words on this blog saying the seeds were sewn long ago. This is a bipartisan catastrophe.

Obama's sin is that he followed in Herber Hoover's, oops I mean George W. Bush's footsteps, destroying free market capitalism in order to save it.

If Benito Obama can just bring the corporatists to heel it will all be ok, relax...

Finntann said...

I think we all know the government has been cooking the books on unemployment for years, nay decades.

The real question is... why are we okay with that.

Silverfiddle said...

Speaking of cooking the books, the "official" inflation rate also masks numerous bipartisan sins as well.

What do they exclude? Food and fuel, the two biggest expenses for non-Ducky rich families.

KP said...

SF, as you and Ducky have alluded to (from very different perspectives) we have a structural problem in America even more than a right vs left problem. The system is rigged. We have two minority parties in this country due to closed primaries, money in politics and gerrymandering. The other 70-80% of us are left to choose the less than sh*tty candidate.

jez said...

"All you ... know how to do is snipe, snivel, spar and sob"

what the hell do you think you're doing?

"while you sift through statistics"

I know you consider facts to be unimportant, but you are wrong.

Silverfiddle said...

@KP: "we have a structural problem in America even more than a right vs left problem"

Yes. Well said!

dmarks said...

Jersey said: "Just as they say Obama policies create the unemployment situation"

Obama is only responsible for the unemployment he caused. But it happens that it is a lot. The unemployment rate went up a massive 20% after he took office.

And this is due to his policies that discouraged companies from hiring workers, and the misguided "Stimulus" which went to well-off union thugs instead of to regain career jobs.

Bunkerville said...

RE: Hospitals going bankrupt. A number of years ago Tenet Health system pulled quite a scam. A reporter when out and took a look at the state of Hospitals, and here is an interesting report Ducky

dmarks said...

Ducky said: "Austerity will make the situation that much worse."

No, it will make everything better. And we needed it now.

In fact, there's no reason a government should not operate in an austere fashion. Everything else is waste.

Liberalmann said...

Lest you forget, once again; Obama created more jobs in 2 years than Bush did in 8 years. That figure would be greater if obstructionist GOP politicians didn't hate Americans.

Silverfiddle said...

Liberalmann: You've just shown us that you either didn't read the article or you cannot understand the data.

Obama has lost millions of jobs.

dmarks said...

Liberalmann lied: "Lest you forget, once again; Obama created more jobs in 2 years than Bush did in 8 years."

Actually, Obama's policies increased unemployment by 20%. He dug a huge hole, and we are no where near out of it. Obama did not create any jobs, but he lost many.

"That figure would be greater if obstructionist GOP politicians didn't hate Americans."

If the Republicans had their way, we'd have been out of this hole a long time ago, with low unemployment.

Silverfiddle said...

Dmarks: We bring facts, they bring talking points.

dmarks said...

Silver: In my city, we saw one of those Obama "drive the economy in the wrong direction" stimulus projects.

It was on a road that was fine and didn't need it. There was a huge sign on the project about it being one of the Obama projects.

Since it was public sector (where you can't expect results), the "workers", if you can call them that, only did a little a day. They blocked driveways for a very long time: and even caused a mom-and-pop restaurant to go under. Because the Obama project blocked the driveway for months at a time.

The result? A nice new road. And a new traffic signal that is very badly designed and placed, so you feel safer going through the driveways of the businesses around it and cutting through parking lots to avoid it... one of the parking lots being the small business that "Barry" had closed.

Obama's stimulus on display: hostile to small businesses, forcing jobs to be lost. While fat-and-happy underworked union thugs get fatter wallets.

Multiply this across the nation.