Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Politics is Dirty Business

Mitt Romney won Florida, and Newt fans are throwing rocks at Marco Rubio for taking sides.  Some are also  accusing Mitt of politically offing Rep. Allen West by urging the Florida GOP to turn his district blue.  Heads are getting hot, and the GOP contestants have barely limped out of the gate...

Conservative fans of Allen West are becoming aware of his redistricting woes. He will be running in a district that is much more liberal this fall.  Did he get crossways with the Florida political establishment?  Did he not kiss the right *ahem* rings?

Others are convinced that RINO Mitt Romney is behind it all, but I doubt it.  Dark speculation about Mitt’s nefarious mitts in all of this is a little overblown.

These are state matters, and usually more parochial issues are what drive stuff like this. Redistricting is fought over tooth and nail, and an outsider presidential candidate who barely has a 50-50 chance of being president is not going to swing that much weight. Somebody wants to carve out a district for a favored politician, or trade it for a political favor, or something like that. There is a lot of “go along to get along” in state politics, and a state politician is not going to expend political capital to satisfy a weak national candidate.

I’m an occam’s razor guy, so I gravitate towards the least convoluted answer. Also, it is most logical to go with the answer or opinion that explains the most data

Sean Trende has the best explanation I have seen. West’s district is already jerrymandered to the max; a patchwork of small conservative enclaves in a sea of urban liberal blue. He’s boxed in by redistricting rules and other districts that cannot be encroached upon. This may be the best they could do for him.  Trende does a good job illustrating what he is talking about with color-coded maps.  Go read it all here:  The Trouble with Saving Allen West’s District

H/T to Bunkerville

See also:  The Shark Tank - Redistricting Goes Awry?