Monday, October 8, 2012

Cooking the books



February 2012
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and businesses services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and mining.

April 2012
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services,retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.

July 2012
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing.

 September 2012
The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing but changed little in most other major industries.

Who do they think they're fooling?

Source:  BLS Archives

See Also:
The Sickly, Stagnant September Jobs Report
Drop in Unemployment may be Misleading

69 comments:

Silverfiddle said...

What the numbers don't show, Steve, is how many people have given up looking for work.

It is a statistically insignificant drop, but dems are singing Happy Days are Here Again over it, showing just how low our expectations have fallen under the bumbling, failed "leadership" of Barack Obama.

Knuckledraggin said...

Shocking!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7y5bh5EIrU

viburnum said...

Are you brain dead Steven?

An increase of 227,000 jobs in February has no effect on the unemployment rate, but 2 days after Obama gets handed his ass in a debate with Romney half of that number knocks it down by 3 tenths of a point? Can you say politically motivated? Sure. I knew you could!

Always On Watch said...

It's Newspeak, and the mainstream media spread the word instead of exposing corruption.

We're living in Orwell's dystopia.

Silverfiddle said...

Pat Caddell really nailed the news media last week. They have lost the mantle of "Fourth Estate," and have become part of the clubby, cocktail circuit DC ruling class.

They are boot-licking toadies to Obama. Like Caddell, I'd love to see them go back to the days when they hated everybody.

I have no problem with them exposing GOP lies and stupidities, but they need to do the same to the dems as well, it would go a long way towards improving our government.

The Debonair Dudes World said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
viburnum said...

Steve: "Maybe if you did watch the news you would understand how these things work, instead of judging them based on your uneducated, delusional mind."

Why don't you enlighten me as to how it's possible that x = -0.3 when 2x=0

Silverfiddle said...

Steve, We understand how statistics work.

Did you read this article?

Caution! It conflicts with your Obama-induced fantasy.

Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by just 1.8 percent. When you take inflation into account, wages are flat to down.

The shrunken workforce remains shrunken. If the labor force participation rate was the same as when President Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 10.7%.


This is success under Obama?

Ducky's here said...

I think the workforce participation rate should be used instead of the "unemployment" rate.

Too much emphasis is put on a single number from a relatively small sampling. But this has been the case for some time.

Ducky's here said...

Silver, Pat Caddell is an ignorant slut.

The press corps doesn't give two warm farts in hell who wins. They simply want to keep their cushy positions as perceived king makers.

When was the last time David Brooks licked Obama's shoes?

jez said...

I don't know anything about your unemployment figures, but wasn't there seasonal part-time work in 2009-11 too?

Z said...

"I have no problem with them exposing GOP lies and stupidities, but they need to do the same to the dems as well, it would go a long way towards improving our government."

SF...that's something the leftwing just can't absorb because it's so different for them; it's their way or no way by their media....

Sort of like those college students saying Obama should have been able to use a teleprompter; they don't seem to grasp what DEBATE is even about because they hear so little themselves in the classroom

Ducky, suddenly Caddell's an 'ignorant slut' because he's left your plantation? He's still a Democrat, he just sees what's going on with your media. Sad state of affairs.
We need more 'ignorant sluts' like Pat.

FreeThinke said...

Thank you. Thank you. THANK you!

For once just putting the figures out there is a great contribution.

Did you attempt to post this information at the raging inferno otherwise known as Ms Shaw's Progressive Corruptions? ;-)

Of course she will have plenty of "sources" and "proof" that it's nothing but LIES! LIES! LIES!

Unfortunately, once again -- and it's getting VERY tiresome -- the thread is All About Steve.

That little garbage pail, which works beautifully for me, would be a far better way of "responding" to the little shit than allowing him, her, or it to hijack each thread and become once again The Center of Attention."

Yeah, I know. you have REAL work to do. It's amazing how much you do accomplish here in the face of all that.

Cheerio!

~ FreeThinke

FreeThinke said...

Yes, Jez, of course there was. That's why it's so easy to conclude that these figures have been artfully "spun" by forces heavily invested in keeping Obama in power.

It's just too much of a COINCIDENCE that what has been reportedly the biggest single change in this statistic -- in TWENTY-NINE YEARS -- should occur immediately following what everyone agrees was a FIASCO for Obama at last Wednesday's Debate.

I do not believe in "coincidence." I believe in MANIPULATION by the powers that be.

If you are searching for honesty, integrity, and integrity, you will NOT find it in politics.

~ FreeThinke

Ducky's here said...

The Liberal Media.
Huge headline on Huffingtonpost:

He Could Win This Thing
followed by a photo of Romney.

As I said, the media just wants to be perceived as the arbiter. They have little concern ho wins.

Hugh Farnham said...

I would point you to John Wiliams' Shadow Government Statistics website: Shadow Stats

You will find actual inflation running an average of 10% year over year using the old (and more honest) 1980's methodology - and underemployment pushing over 20%. We're talking near Great Depression levels, folks.

Also, a nice story how BLS senior bureaucrats openly contribute to Obama: Obama's Bureaucrats at the BLS

Everyone, have a happy day off!

Hugh

Ducky's here said...

z, if you have been paying attention you'd know that I consider Romney and Obama the same brand.

Caddell is a freaking clown.

skudrunner said...

It should not surprise anyone that a gain of 116k jobs lowers the unemployment rate .3-.4%. After all they found several hundred thousand jobs that were stuffed in a glove box. Isn't that they way Franken won. Gotta monitor those glove boxes better.

Duck, It pains me to admit I agree with you about workforce participation rate should be used instead of the "unemployment" rate."

We need to listen to Rick Santelli who predicted unemployment would fall below 8% just before the election.

FreeThinke said...

Ducky,

You would be a much more credible character - if a bit less entertaining -- if you quit the name-calling.

It makes you sound silly and nugatory, and I don't think you are.

Really, I don't.

~ FT

conservativesonfire said...

Somebody has to explain How U-3 could fall so drastically and U-6 is unchanged at 14.7%.

viburnum said...

@ CoF

Lies, damn lies, and statistics!

Finntann said...

@Funny how there was no complaint about how we gather those figures until last Fridays report.

Excuse me?

I believe there have been several posts on the topic. But then Steve Orwell believes Ignorance=Truth

Cheers!

viburnum said...

Finntann: "But then Steve Orwell believes Ignorance=Truth"

He has to. Otherwise he'd have to recognize when the government is trying to piss in his ear and tell him it's raining.

viburnum said...

@ Steve

Representatives of your Democrat party believe we can spend our way out of debt, achieve peace through unilateral disarmament, and achieve energy independence by shutting down coal mines and oil wells.

The Republicans haven't exactly cornered the market on fools.

Silverfiddle said...

Yes Steve, you are the correctiest of the correctest correct people...

Silverfiddle said...

FreeThinke: After an exhaustive search of this blog, you get the award for the first-ever use of the word 'nugatory.'

What's next, you accusing Ducky of contumely?

Thersites said...

Democrats still believe that the way to solve the problem of poverty is to hand out free money to poor people...

So who are the stupid ones, Stevie?

Red Herring said...

Thread topics now departing on Track 9...All ABOARD!

viburnum said...

Steve: "People worked hard and paid taxes to support those programs"

Nice to see you recognize the contribution of the 1% ( 40% of the freight ) and the next 9% ( who collectively pay about 70% of all income tax) for a change.

Joe Conservative said...

People worked hard and paid taxes to support those programs

Chinese people.

Joe Conservative said...

Ima HARD worker!...

skudrunner said...

Steve,

You are finally waking up and I congratulate you. Your statement
"People worked hard and paid taxes to support those programs" shows that you have some sibilance of reality.

The one exception I would make is our money is commandeered by the left to pay people not to work. The left is best served if the poor remain dependent on government and remain a good voting block. Your supreme leader has done an excellent job of strengthening his base with the addition of millions of new food stamp recipients while he plays the Rock star and apologizes to the entertainment crowd.

Haven't seen him apologize to the millions out of work because of his policies but I guess they can't donate to his coronation.

Sam Huntington said...

Pat Caddell is an ignorant slut

Quite a charge, coming from a vile rat.

Ducky's here said...

Nugatory? Isn't that a little tough on your fillings?

Hack said...

What mental midgets like little Steve don't take into account, is that, cooked books or not, 7.8% is still an awful awful unemployment rate, and those tens of millions of Americans still out of work aren't going to suddenly jump up, shout for joy, and throw themselves on the Obama bandwagon simply because the rate us down to 7.8%. No, people are hurting and Obama is in charge, and no amount of media spin, manipulated numbers, or liberal lies is going to change that. You think the guy that works 3 part time jobs because he cant find stable, full time work, is any happier because of this so called "positive" jobs report? Hell no, and he sure as hell won't be voting for Obama, even if he did the first time.

Mizz Anonymous said...

This just in from TMZ
Actor Danny DeVito and actress Rhea Perlman have separated after more than 30 years of marriage, TMZ has learned.
It seems that Rhea Perlman found out that Danny DeVito was a Liberal.

My Conservative Thoughts said...

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only two times, since 1960, has the unemployment dropped by 0.5 percentage points in a two month span.
The first time this happened was in 1984 under President Ronald Reagan
The only other time (in over 50 years, again) is occurring right now under President Obama (Aug & Sept, 2012). When the rate went from 8.3 to 7.8,
Think about that again. In over 50 years, starting with President John F. Kennedy, only twice has the unemployment rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points within a 2-month span. But then again we are dealing with Barack Obama the Messiah, so anything can happen...
So we are to believe that one of those times is happening right now - under a president with the worst jobs record in history, one month before the most important election of our time – all with a backdrop of anemic GDP and job creation. Oh, and when Obama conveniently needed to get to 7.8% to "break even." And exactly one month before the election and 2 days after he got his Ass Whipped by his opponent.
This is really getting ridiculous. We have a dope in the while house who takes us for total morons, just because he is used to be dealing with the morons, idiots in his administration.
Wake up you progressive fools, the numbers just do not add up.
There is no rational for a .3% drop when the new jobs are nearly the same as last month! But suddenly out of the blue, the single largest monthly gain in almost 50 years takes place? Can you imagine the media outrage if GWB used those numbers? This country is in real trouble when the government openly lies to its citizens. I for one just can not believe my own government any more. And that’s pretty dam sad.

-FJ said...

Stevie,

People who don't pay any taxes certainly didn't do it.

Finntann said...

@People worked hard and paid taxes to support those programs.

Exactly, now which portion pays and which portion receives?

And which portion votes Republican and which portion votes Democrat.

Think about it, but be careful not to hurt yourself... it's best to slowly ease into an activity
not frequently participated in.

Cheers!

Speedy G said...

Stevie,

YOU are the 47%... not the 99%.

Jersey McJones said...

Silver,

Did you by any chance compare "nonfarm" employment today with the rates 5, 10, years ago?

I bet you didn't.

Here's 2006: http://www.bls.gov/ces/highlights092006.pdf

Feel free to browse other years.

"Nonfarm" is the key word here. You see, if you add millions of people to the population, often just temporarily, and the vast majority of them are employed, then the base unemployment "percent" of the nation will be reduced. Basic math.

When you have a major drought, a severe recession that started in 2006, for all purposes, then what will happen? Those millions of foreign workers won't come.

"Nonfarm" my @$$.

JMJ

Silverfiddle said...

You're close, Jersey! The millions that have dropped from the workforce are what's helped keep Obama's unemployment rate under 10%

Jersey McJones said...

Exactly, Silver.

That's the point I made: Our employment figures are skewed by migrant workers.

Get it?

If anything, they were all the more skewed during the years the GOP controlled the government and the bread-belt red states could import all the agro-workers they wanted.

In other words, we're better off with less migrant workers when it comes to seeing what real employment figures are, we're getting more realistic employment numbers, so what's your problem???

JMJ

FreeThinke said...

"FreeThinke: After an exhaustive search of this blog, you get the award for the first-ever use of the word 'nugatory.'

What's next, you accusing Ducky of contumely?"


Well well well! It's good to know someone notices-- and, apparently, cares -- about my valiant and concerted efforts to preserve, protect, defend and enhance English language usage.

Ducky certainly is unduly contumelious at times, isn't he?

Remember that line about the advisability of playing tennis with someone who plays better?

It applies to language usage as well -- and many other things.

Isn't it wonderful the way internet communication facilitates the possibility of our learning from one another?

Long live erudition!

~ FreeThinke

Silverfiddle said...

Reminds me of the famous Bill Buckley quote:

"I am lapidary but not eristic when I use big words"

I had to look up both lapidary and eristic when I first read the quote.

Silverfiddle said...

It's an interesting theory, Jersey, I'll give you that.

You should contact the DNC, perhaps they could use your line of argumentation. Lord knows they blown every other color of smoke...

FreeThinke said...

FYI: Nugatory entered the vocabulary in 1603. Contumelious has been around since the fifteenth century -- i.e. the 1400's.

~ FT

Robert Sinclair said...

You are definitely eristic, SF ... but in your case, that is a good thing.

FreeThinke said...

In case you may still be unaware:

Most leftists are highly eristic by nature but rarely apply the logical acuity of a lapidary in formulating their tenuous, insubstantial, fractious, often fatuous animadversions demanding draconian penalties for nugatory offenses.

Despite the blatant vacuity of their jejune argumentation, they most often insist with lapideous adamancy on the rectitude and feasibility of their heuristic, too often fallacious Weltanschaung confusing impractical, irresponsible phantasmagoria with moral imperatives.

~ FreeThinke

FreeThinke said...

Bill Buckley was one of my great heroes, until the day I realized he was a closet liberal and a faux conservative. In short he played ball with too many of the wrong people in order to secure his career advancement.

I still love him for adding great color and vitality to political discourse and for stimulating greater curiosity about our astonishingly rich, too often neglected English vocabulary, which still threatens to fall into a state of noxious desuetude by the persistent use of stupid clichés born of mental laziness, and moronic stock phrases like "dumbing down," using "fact check," as a verb, split infinitives, constant use of "the fact that," the use of "cool" and "awesome" as generally accepted terms of approbation, and all sorts of other slovenly, inelegant, ill-conceived usages that have had a decidedly detrimental effect on the language -- and our ability to comprehend it in its finer forms.

~ FT

Ducky's here said...

Freethinker, you old queen, stop trying to butch.

FreeThinke said...

In case my meaning was not clear about "the fact that" please think of the following.

Would you prefer to hear a young woman looking at real estate say "I love the fact that the kitchen has a dishwasher, " or would you feel better if she simply said "I'm glad the kitchen has a dishwasher?"

I hope your preference would be for the latter.

How about this?

"I like the fact that my girlfriend has big boobs," as opposed to "I'm so happy my girlfriend has a beautiful figure."

Or

"I like that the store is putting some things on sale for half off next week" as opposed to "I'm glad the store is having a half-price sale next week."

Meanwhile, I think the fact that no one seems to know or care about such differences anymore is a bummer -- a sign we're really going down the tubes.

~ FT

FreeThinke said...

Ducky, you're indulging in inappropriate anal discourse again. Dropping infantile remarks on the board when you haven't the wit -- or the knowledge -- to make appropriate additions to the conversation is imbecilic, and only serves to make you appear even more inane than you are.

As Winston Churchill said to Lady Astor, "I may be disgustingly drunk, but you are appallingly ugly.
The difference between us is that I shall recover in the morning."

Good night.

~ FT

Teresa said...

Spinning is what the media does best. Trying to make Obama look good is the media's whole modus operandi.

The numbers aren't good but the media says the economy is better than it really is just to make Obama coming out smelling like a rose. This reminds me of when the media overreacted when under Bush the unemployment rate was at around 6 percent. Then, they acted like the world was coming to an end but now unemployment at 7.8 percent and they have the yahoos thinking that the country's doing great. What a bunch of hooey!

Liberalmann said...

Right on cue after Fox News' talking points hits the air. How original. Winguts wont be happy unless more of their neighbors are out of work. Nice patriots.

viburnum said...

I don't watch Fox News Lib-Mann. I just live out in the country and recognize bullshit when I smell it.

Finntann said...

FT, just consider this for a moment:

A merchant whilom dwelled at seint-denys,
That riche was, for which men helde hym wys.
A wyf he hadde of excellent beautee;
And compaignable and revelous was she,
Which is a thyng that causeth more dispence
Than worth is al the chiere and reverence
That men hem doon at festes and at daunces.
Swiche salutaciouns and contenances
Passen as dooth a shadwe upon the wal;
But wo is hym that payen moot for al!
The sely housbonde, algate he moot paye,
He moot us clothe, and he moot us arraye,
Al for his owene worshipe richely,
In which array we daunce jolily.

The only static language is a dead language.

Finntann said...

For those of you that need a translation from Middle English:

A merchant, dwelling, once, at Saint Denis,
Was rich, for which men held him wise, and he
Had got a wife of excellent beauty,
And very sociable and gay was she,
Which is a thing that causes more expense
Than all the good cheer and the deference
That men observe at festivals and dances;
Such salutations and masked countenances
Pass by as does a shadow on the wall;
But woe to him that must pay for it all.
The foolish husband, always he must pay;
He must buy clothes and other fine array,
And all for his own worship, wealthily,
In which, indeed, women dance jollily.
And if he cannot thus, peradventure,

~Geoffrey Chaucer

Oh sorry FT should that be, Jeffrey Choser.

Finntann said...

Moreover, while it may be veridical that many are bereft of your facile and sagacious prowess in crafting prose, it is ascribable more to the caliber of their erudition than any diminution of our orotund mimmitation, however ineloquent you may find the vicissitudes.

Huzzah!

FreeThinke said...

O, Finnatann, you've caused me to sigh
With such admiration that I
Must read'ly admit
That despite my great wit,
You're a much bigger showoff than I!


Cheers!

FT

Liberalmann said...

So what figures are cooked? The job figures or the polls? I can't keep up with winguts and their fuzzy math!

FreeThinke said...

Mere change in linguistic polity
May produce an excess of frivolity.
We don’t want at tea
A vast quantity
Of vulgarity lacking high quality.


~ FT

Finntann said...

@You're a much bigger showoff than I!

Odd that the man that used nugatory in a serious sentence on a blog accuses me of being a showoff when being facetious. Odd too that the man loudly lamenting the abasement of our language uses the word "bummer" in a sentence.

Aside from the Chaucer which was used to illustrate the point of the dynamism of language, the other paragraph that I posted, while technically correct, is a pretty poor use of language. Why? Because it fails at the basic function of language which is communication.

The point, apparently lost on or ignored by you is that your English is no more proper than Cædmon or Chaucer, despite what you may smugly think.

You can bitch and moan to no avail, as undoubtedly people have been complaining that the language has been succumbing to the gutterspeak of the masses since Bede.


Cheers!

FreeThinke said...

A person of too broad a range
Who advocates unthinking change
Fails to discriminate
Between first and second-rate
Thus proving his mind's got the mange.


}:-)>

FreeThinke said...

A show of things worthy of pride
Will attract those compelled to deride
Any person at all
Who has more on the ball
Than those who enjoy being snide.


Pip pip and cheerio!

~ FT

FreeThinke said...

To return to the topic of the thread:

Here's a fascinating article on the idea of "book-cooking." It's definitely worth a look:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4596961-joseph-stuber/1147991-did-obama-cook-the-books-on-the-jobs-numbers

Just copy and paste at Google, then click and enjoy.

~ FT

beamish said...

I wonder what the unemployment number will be when Obama's paid campaign workers are released from their temp jobs.

FreeThinke said...

I'll hazard an educated guess and say that probably a full twenty-percent of the able-bodied are currently unemployed.

Many who have jobs are working in either part-time or low-paying menial positions, instead of firmly placed on "career paths" for work for which they've been specifically trained in their area or areas of major interest.

In other words, even if you have a job, it's likely to be more of the "soda jerk," "lawn care," "broom pushing," or "butt-wiping" variety than anything with a potentially bright future.

So it's not just having a "job" that matters, it's having a job one would PREFER to do. The latter are in very short supply.

Looks like we're fast becoming a nation of peons.

martin kristen said...

How can an Accountant get a company arrested for Cooking books, evading taxes etc. when the Accountant is not a CPA and can't certify a audit but stills knows. What should the Accountant do?
NY CPA License