Monday, October 6, 2014

Their wild steeds are pawing the ground with impatience

Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict a 75 percent chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24, and a 50 percent chance it could hit Britain by that date.  Those numbers are based on air traffic remaining at full capacity. Assuming an 80 percent reduction in travel to reflect that many airlines are halting flights to affected regions, France's risk is still 25 percent, and Britain's is 15 percent.

Yahoo News

Belgium has a 40 percent chance of seeing the disease arrive on its territory, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks of 14 percent each, according to the study first published in the journal PLoS Current Outbreaks and now being regularly updated at

The WHO has reported, as of September 22, that 384 health-care workers have gotten the virus and 186 have died.  President Obama has promised to train 500 health workers per week to work to beat back the epidemic.  Vox

500 a week... boy, I feel better already... I'm not a virologist but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night; at least now we know what the military engineers are going to be building in west Africa.

"It's really a lottery," said Derek Gatherer of Britain's Lancaster University, an expert in viruses who has been tracking the epidemic...

Wanna buy a ticket? 
"And when the sun arises in a few hours, the world will see coursing through its fields the four horsemen, enemies of mankind. . . . Already their wild steeds are pawing the ground with impatience; already the ill-omened riders have come together and are exchanging the last words before leaping into the saddle."  ~Vicente Blasco Ibáñez 

Nothing promotes a little humility like the world getting all medieval on your ass. 

Risk and Direct Contact - NY Times 

September 20th Worst Case Scenario - 500,000 cases

September 23rd Worst Case Scenario - 1,400,000 cases

CDC Worst Case Scenario Triples in Four Days

No comments: